What’s Next For 1-800-Flowers.com Stock Post A 6% Gain?

1-800-Flowers.com stock (NASDAQ: FLWS), an online gift retailer selling fresh-cut flowers, plants, gourmet foods, cookies, candy and wine, home and garden merchandise, under the brands Harry & David, Cheryl’s Cookies, Moose Munch, and The Popcorn Factory, among others, experienced a 6% gain over the last week (five trading days) to levels of around $33 currently. The company’s revenue skyrocketed 70% year-over-year in the recent fiscal third quarter. The gains were driven by strong e-commerce growth during the pandemic and the acquisition of PersonalizationMall.com in August.

But will the company’s stock see higher levels over the coming weeks, or is a decline in the stock imminent? According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in a company’s stock price, returns for FLWS stock average around 2.9% in the next one month (twenty-one trading days) period after experiencing a 5.9% rise in a week.

But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding 1-800-Flowers.com stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test 1-800-Flowers.com stock chances of a rise after a fall. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just one day!

MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:

IF FLWS stock moved by -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next twenty-one trading days, FLWS stock moves an average of 4.7%, which implies an excess return of 2.7% compared to the S&P500.

More importantly, there is a 59% probability of a positive return over the next twenty-one trading days and a 55% probability of a positive excess return after a -5% change over five trading days.

Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of 1-800-Flowers.com Stock Movements:

Question 1: Is the average return for 1-800-Flowers.com stock higher after a drop?

Answer: Consider two situations,

Case 1: 1-800-Flowers.com stock drops by -5% or more in a week

Case 2: 1-800-Flower.com stock rises by 5% or more in a week

Is the average return for 1-800-Flowers.com stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?

FLWS stock fares better after Case 1, with an average return of 4.8% over the next month (twenty-one trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of 2.8% for Case 2.

In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next twenty-one trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.

Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how 1-800-Flowers.com stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.

Question 2: Does patience pay?

Answer: If you buy and hold FLWS stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.

Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!

For FLWS stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:

You can try the engine to see what this table looks like for FLWS after a larger loss over the last week, month, or quarter.

Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?

Answer: The average return after a rise is understandably lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks – although FLWS stock appears to be an exception to this general observation.

FLWS returns over the next N days after a 5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:

It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for 1-800-Flowers.com by changing the inputs in the charts above.

E-commerce is eating into retail sales, but this might be an investment opportunity. See our theme on E-commerce Stocks for a diverse list of companies that stand to benefit from the big shift.

See all Trefis Price Estimates and Download Trefis Data here

What’s behind Trefis? See How It’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs For CFOs and Finance Teams | Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams