Volkswagen AG’s Stock Rising Before Earnings, Will It Continue?

Volkswagen AG’s stock (OTCMTS: VWAGY) has risen by 7.1% over the last five trading days. In comparison, the broader S&P500 rose by 4.9% over the last five trading days. The rise was primarily seen after the company announced its first ever ’Power Day’ scheduled for March 15, 2021. The company is expected to announce its plans for the production and supply of batteries. The event will give the market a clear idea about the company’s ability to accelerate its production of electric cars. The company is expected to announce its FY 2020 earnings on March 16, 2021. Now, is VWAGY’s stock poised to grow? We believe that there is a 50% chance of a rise in VWAGY’s stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on Volkswagen AG’s Stock Chances Of Rise for more details.

Five Days: VWAGY 7.1%, vs. S&P500 4.9%; Outperformed market

(6% likelihood event)

• Volkswagen AG stock rose 7.1% over a five day trading period ending 3/12/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 4.9%
• A change of 7.1% or more over five trading days is a 6% likelihood event, which has occurred 155 times out of 2516 in the last ten years

Ten Days: VWAGY 20%, vs. S&P500 3.3%; Outperformed market

(Extremely rare event)

• Volkswagen AG stock rose 20% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 3.3%
• A change of 20% or more over ten trading days is an extremely rare event, which has occurred 14 times out of 2500 in the last ten years

Twenty One Days: VWAGY 25%, vs. S&P500 1.1%; Outperformed; Underperformed market

(Extremely rare event)

• Volkswagen AG stock rose 25% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.1%
• A change of 25% or more over twenty-one trading days is an extremely rare event, which has occurred 6 times out of 2458 in the last ten years

While Volkswagen stock may have moved, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how the stock valuation for Tesla vs. Cigna shows a disconnect with their relative operational growth. You can find many such discontinuous pairs here.

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