There are three key steps Americans can follow to make the country safer as we move back to lives that feel more normal after the last fourteen months. These steps relate to vaccination rates, mask wearing, and preparedness in respect to Covid-variants. A big question is whether the country has the collective psychological strength to do what is prudent and necessary.
WHEATON, MARYLAND – MAY 21: Maryland National Guard PFC Caitlyn Conver fills a syringe with a dose … [+]
Psychologically, I would describe the current mood of the U.S. as one of cautious hope. To be sure, there are good reasons to be hopeful about how things will play out on the Covid-front over the next few months. There are also good reasons to be cautious, and there is a danger that going forward, the country will drop its guard and become less cautious.
Here are some grounds for hope. The number of Americans who are vaccinated continues to rise, and the number of Covid-related daily deaths continues to fall. Projections from the Institute of Health Metrics (IHME) indicate that U.S. cases and deaths from Covid will decline significantly over the coming weeks, falling from around 700 per day at present to around 250 by July 4, and then down near 100 by the Labor Day weekend.
The May 20 IHME report on the U.S. is generally upbeat, but with caveats to which we would do well to pay attention. The report tells us that daily infection rates are actually expected to rise a bit in August as many Americans stop using masks, return to pre-Covid mobility levels, and face the spread of Covid-variants.
By the end of August, there is good reason to expect that 70% of Americans will be vaccinated, double the number today, but still insufficient to prevent continued transmission. The IHME is clear to say that the increase in infection rates will be “faster if new escape variants spread, particularly P.1 and B.1.617.” In this regard, the IHME adds that “25-30% of the vaccinated would be able to be infected by one of the escape variants.”
Now to those three key steps which the U.S. can take to keep the country safe from Covid after the Labor Day weekend. All are recommended by the IHME, which I describe using quotes from the IHME’s May 20 report. Step one is to vaccinate as many people as possible, including “those who are currently unsure if they want to be vaccinated. Second is to resume the wearing of masks “if and when transmission returns in a community.” Third is to “minimize the risk of spread of new variants, particularly P.1 and B.1.617.”
Over the course of the last year, I have come to have confidence in Covid-projection information available from both the IHME, which is housed at the University of Washington, which I double check against information from the Reich lab which is housed at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst.
I also have confidence in analysis based upon the integrated assessment model developed by economists Martin Eichenbaum, Sergio Rebelo and Mathias Trabandt, which has provided clear eyed insights since April 2020. This model presents a number of special cases, one of which featured a late U.S. response to the virus followed by the availability of a vaccine. For this case, the model’s point estimate of eventual cumulative U.S. deaths from Covid-19 was close to 1.1 million. On May 20, 2021, the IHME projected that cumulative U.S. deaths by Labor Day weekend will be around 900,000, adjusted for undercounts. If we are lucky, total eventual deaths will not exceed the estimate from Eichenbaum, Rebelo, and Trabandt
The three steps are all about being cautious, and caution is an antidote to complacency. It is easy to become complacent as infection rates and death rates fall and become low. Taiwan became complacent and is now paying the price.
India also became complacent. Here is what the May 20 report on India from the IHME has to say: “The B.1.617 variant of the virus has contributed to the explosive increase of cases and deaths in India over the past few weeks and has become the dominant variant in India along with the widely prevalent B.1.1.7 variant. Without drastic measures to bolster the health system to deal with this onslaught, rapidly increasing the pace of vaccination, increasing effective face mask use, and decreasing social mixing through strict restrictions, the situation currently looks grim for India.”
International travel is increasing, and this travel will facilitate the spread of new variants. Variants emerge from places where infection rates are high. If we are complacent, we will not minimize the risk that these variants will spread, and will act too slowly when they do. We do not know how long vaccines provide protection, and to what degree today’s vaccines will provide protection against the variants that will arrive in the future. It is not enough for vaccinations rates to be high. They need to be high enough to prevent repeated waves of infection.
At the moment, there remains a sense of caution among Americans about Covid, as the percentage of the population that has been vaccinated is currently only just over a third, is slowing, and is far less than what is required for herd immunity. Moreover, the group that is unvaccinated contains many children; and, while children are less vulnerable than adults to becoming severely ill from being infected by the virus, they are just as prone to being spreaders.
Americans have good reason to be cautiously hopeful about progress in addressing Covid. It will pay to remain cautious and avoid being complacent as infection rates and death rates fall over the next few months.
Remember, three steps to follow: Continue to vaccinate. Use masks in situations that facilitate virus transmission. Be proactive about the presence of new variants.
