Post option expiration (OPEX) week has a bearish tendency in February. See the histogram below. This is supported by the seasonality which shows weakness from the 21st through the 27th. There is no support from the daily S&P cycle which has peaked. The projected turning point on the 24th-25th is likely the low. The February 27-March 6 period begins the period of end-of-month strength.
S&P in Post OPEX Week in February
The coming week has a bearish history since 1985.
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Blue: Average Percentage Change
Red: Probability of a rise on that day
Green: Expected Return (Product of the first 2)
The weekly Walmart WMT cycle tops on February 23rd. The cycle sell signals have been profitable in all five cases in the last year. The daily and monthly cycles are also falling. The period from the 14th through the 24th has been the weakest stretch in February. Relative strength peaked in October. The shares are likely to fall closer to $130 or lower. March, however, has been the second strongest month of the year, up 72.5% of the time. Close shorts late in the coming week.
Walmart Weekly Cycle
This cycle points to a lower WMT price.
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Walmart Daily Graph
Relative strength continues to fall.
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The daily Marathon Petroleum MPC cycle bottoms on the 23rd, in line with the expected S&P low. The daily buy signals have been correct in all nine cases in the last year. The monthly cycle is also rising. The stock may rise to the $54 level.
Marathon Daily Cycle
The last nine buy signals have been profitable in the last year.
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Marathon Daily Graph
Relative strength is strong.
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The Simon Property SPG daily cycle bottoms later this week on the 22nd and tops in March. All ten buy signals have been profitable in the last twelve months. The weekly cycle is also rising. The shares are likely to rise closer to $115.
Simon Property Daily Cycle
All buy signals have been successful in the last year.
