Buy IBM And The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE)

The weekly and the monthly S&P 500 cycles are bottoming now. After April 5^th, all cycles will point up.

From March 26 to April 11, the S&P has risen 66% of the time for an average 18% gain or an expected return of 12%, the second lowest among the 12 months. This will likely provide enough support to send the indices higher despite the excessively speculative investment atmosphere.

The following recommendations are more intermediate-term.

IBM
IBM
appears to be making a longer-term low. Note the higher lows in momentum and the recent improvement in relative strength. April has been the fourth strongest month for the stock in terms of expected return. The stock is breaking out of an ascending triangle with a $155 intermediate-term target.

Chart 1: IBM Daily, Weekly, Monthly

The financial sector has risen to second place in the rankings. There are higher lows in weekly momentum. The monthly oscillator is not overbought. The sector price has risen above its two prior highs. The sector will likely be one of the leaders in 2021. This sector has risen in 68% of the last 22 years in the month of April. This has been the strongest month in any year.

Chart 2: XLF-Daily, Weekly, Annually

Chart 3: Monthly Histogram for XLF

Blue: Average Percentage Change

Red: Probability of a rise on that day

Green: Expected Return (Product of the first 2)