Photographer: Matthew Busch/Bloomberg
The S&P is likely to rally into the 17th. On that date, the end-of-month (EOM) period of strength expires. It will also be the end of the bullish July OPEX week. Remain long the S&P into Friday. Cycle support dissipates after that date. Rein in leveraged long positions late in the week. July OPEX week from 1985 is depicted below.
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July OPEX Week S&P Change
This histogram represents the average performance of the S&P 500 during July OPEX week.
Blue: Average Percentage Change
Red: Probability of a rise on that day
Green: Expected Return (Product of the first 2)
The XLE energy ETF fell by 3.3% in the last week. Whenever it has fallen by 1% or more in that week, it has been up in 7 of 8 cases in the following week. The daily cycle bottomed on June 20th and tops on July 16th. Eight of ten buy signals have been profitable in the last year. The stock has risen in the month of July 61% of the time. The shares are likely to move closer to $55-$56.
Chart 1: XLE Daily Cycle
The XLE daily cycle flashes a buy for this week.
Chart 2: XLE Daily Graph
This ETF is likely to rally to or past the prior high.
The Marathon Oil daily cycle points up from the 12th through the 18th. Eighty percent of the buy signals have made money in the last year. The stock is due to rise to $14-$15 or higher.
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Chart 3: Marathon Oil Daily Cycle
The Marathon daily cycle is indicating higher prices.
Chart 4: Marathon Oil Daily Graph
Look for $14-$15 on the upside.
