Biden’s Stock Markets Have Not Crashed As Trump Predicted

The Dow closed above 35,000 for the first time along with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closing at record highs. By President Trump’s favorite measure of success President Biden’s post-election and inauguration stock market gains have beaten Trump’s equivalent eight plus month’s returns. The stock market has not crashed under Biden as Trump predicted as seen in this debate video.

All three major indexes, the Dow 30 Industrials, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, have generated greater percentage increases from their respective election days to late July. Biden’s outperformance includes from the day of the November 3 election and the Friday after the election since the race was not called until the weekend.

Biden’s Dow and S&P 500 returns have also beaten Trump’s starting from January 19, the day before they were inaugurated. The only measure where Trump’s is higher is the Nasdaq from their inauguration dates.

Using the returns from the time the election was called in Biden’s favor to late July vs. when Trump was called the winner to late July 2017 the Dow, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have risen by 6.1%, 10.1% and 1.7% more under Biden, respectively.

Biden’s Dow has been a steady outperformer vs. Trump

On the Tuesday in 2016 the election was held between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton the Dow 30 Industrials closed at 18,333. The Index responded positively to Trump’s victory, called on the same evening, and continued to rise through July.

• From Tuesday, November 8, close: Up 3,247 or 17.7%
• From January 19 (the day before the Inauguration): Up 1,848 or 9.4%

On the Tuesday of the election between Trump and Biden the Index closed at 28,323. It also increased the next three days with Biden in the lead but it had not been called. However, the Monday after the election was called the Index gapped upwards and has continually risen except for a few sharp downturns that quickly reversed.

• From Tuesday, November 3, close: Up 7,582 or 27.6%  
• From Friday, November 6, close: Up 6,738 or 23.8%
• From January 19 (the day before the Inauguration): Up 4,131 or 13.4%

The S&P 500 had Biden’s largest outperformance vs. Trump

Trump saw a smaller gain in the S&P 500 vs. the Dow 30. It rose 15.6% from his election day and 9.2% from his inauguration to mid-April 2017.

• From Tuesday, November 8, close: Up 333 or 15.6%
• From January 19 (the day before the Inauguration): Up 209 or 9.2%

Between Biden’s election and last Friday the S&P 500 returns were better than the Dow’s. Biden’s market returns were again substantially above Trump’s by 10.1% from when the election was called and 6.9% from his inauguration.

• From Tuesday, November 3, close: Up 1,043 or 30.9%%
• From Friday, November 6, close: Up 902 or 25.7%
• From January 19 (the day before the Inauguration): Up 613 or 16.1%

The NASDAQ was Trump’s best Index

The post-election to late July timeframe saw the NASDAQ with the highest performing Index for Trump, coming in at 23.0%, which was still a bit short of Biden’s 24.7%.

• From Tuesday, November 8, close: Up 1,194 or 23.0%
• From January 19 (the day before the Inauguration): Up 848 or 15.3%

Trump’s return of 15.3% since his inauguration is the only metric that beats Biden’s 12.4%.

• From Tuesday, November 3, close: Up 3,676 or 32.9%  
• From Friday, November 6, close: Up 2,942 or 24.7%
• From January 19 (the day before the Inauguration): Up 1,640 or 12.4%