Biden’s Stock Market Is Crushing Trump’s

While the markets are down between 0.4% to 1.1% today, the Dow and S&P 500 closed at all-time highs on Friday and the NASDAQ was only 0.3% off its peak. By one of President Trump’s favorite measures of success President Biden’s post-election stock market gains have beaten Trump’s equivalent five plus month’s returns. In fact Biden’s have crushed Trump’s, which continues a trend that occurred through the end of 2020.

All three major indexes, the Dow 30 Industrials, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ all generated greater percentage increases from their respective election days to mid-April. Biden’s outperformance includes from the day of the November 3 election and the Friday after the election since the race was not called until the weekend. Biden’s returns have also beaten Trump’s starting from January 19, the day before they were inaugurated.

Using the returns from the time the election was called in Biden’s favor to mid-April vs. when Trump was called the winner to mid-April 2017 the Dow, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ have risen by 9.2%, 10.4% and 6.4% more under Biden, respectively.

The Dow had the strongest performance for Biden vs. other Indexes

On the Tuesday in 2016 the election was held between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton the Dow 30 Industrials closed at 18,333. The Index responded positively to Trump’s victory, called on the same evening, and continued to rise until mid-December when it leveled off until the beginning of February.

• From Tuesday, November 8, close: Up 2,121 or 11.6%
• From January 19 (the day before the Inauguration): Up 721 or 3.7%

On the Tuesday of the election between Trump and Biden the Index closed at 28,323. It also increased the next three days with Biden in the lead but it had not been called. However, the Monday after the election was called the Index gapped upwards and has continually risen.

• From Tuesday, November 3, close: Up 6,721 or 24.5%  
• From Friday, November 6, close: Up 5,877 or 20.8%
• From January 19 (the day before the Inauguration): Up 3,270 or 10.6%

The S&P 500 had Biden’s largest outperformance vs. Trump

Trump saw a smaller gain in the S&P 500 vs. the Dow 30. It rose 8.9% from his election day and only 2.9% from his inauguration to mid-April 2017.

• From Tuesday, November 8, close: Up 189 or 8.9%
• From January 19 (the day before the Inauguration): Up 65 or 2.9%

Between Biden’s election and last Friday the S&P 500 returns were very similar to the Dow’s. Biden’s market returns were again substantially above Trump’s.

• From Tuesday, November 3, close: Up 816 or 24.2%     
• From Friday, November 6, close: Up 676 or 19.3%
• From January 19 (the day before the Inauguration): Up 387 or 10.2%

The NASDAQ was Trump’s best Index but still fell short of Biden’s

The post-election to mid-April timeframe saw the NASDAQ with the highest performing Index for Trump, coming in at 11.8%.

• From Tuesday, November 8, close: Up 612 or 11.8%
• From January 19 (the day before the Inauguration): Up 265 or 4.8%

However, even though the NASDAQ was Biden’s worst performing Index, it still rose 6.4% more than Trump’s.

• From Tuesday, November 3, close: Up 2,892 or 25.9%  
• From Friday, November 6, close: Up 2,157 or 18.1%
• From January 19 (the day before the Inauguration): Up 855 or 6.5%

Note the 6.4% outperformance is due to rounding the 6.36% delta of the two returns.