COVID swamping Hong Kong, study warns coming weeks will be far, far worse

HONG KONG, Feb 22 (Reuters) – Hong Kong faces a drastic spread of COVID-19 in coming weeks, as university researchers predicted new infections could peak at 180,000 daily in early to mid-March, with the Chinese-controlled city already barely able to cope with 6,000 cases a day.

Health authorities in the Asian financial hub said infections were rising “exponentially”, and a backlog in testing meant they were unable to get a full picture.

On Tuesday, they reported 6,211 new cases, 32 deaths and a further 9,369 cases that came up positive in preliminary tests.

In a paper titled “Modelling the fifth wave of COVID-19 in Hong Kong”, researchers at the University of Hong Kong said they updated their Feb. 10 study to show the number of daily deaths potentially peaking at near 100 by late March, and cumulative deaths potentially rising to around 3,206 by mid-May.

Less than two weeks ago the same researchers had predicted daily infections potentially peaking at around 28,000 by mid-March with a total of 954 deaths by the end of June.

In the absence of much more intensive social distancing measures, like a city-wide lockdown, “the trajectory of the fifth wave is unlikely to change substantially from its current course,” the study said.

Hong Kong has reported that since the start of February daily infections have surged by around 70 times, overwhelming the government’s testing, hospital and quarantine capacities, as it attempts to stifle the virus.

The Hong Kong government has adopted a “dynamic zero COVID” strategy similar to mainland China, aiming to eradicate any outbreaks at all costs.

Home to 7.4 million people, Hong Kong already has some of the world’s toughest rules to curb COVID-19. Stringent flight restrictions mean that very few flights are able to land while most transit passengers are banned.

Inside the city, gatherings of more than 2 people are banned and most venues, including schools, gyms and beauty salons, are closed.

Most people are working from home, under similar restrictions to those imposed in 2020, when the pandemic first erupted.

In total the city has reported over 60,000 infections, far less than other similar major cities.

The study anticipated that the number of infected people in 7-day isolation could potentially reach over 600,000, while the number of close contacts in 7-day quarantine could reach 1.8 million, leading to a substantial disruption in society.

Reporting by Anne Marie Roantree, Twinnie Siu, Marius Zaharia and Farah Master; Editing by Kenneth Maxwell & Simon Cameron-Moore

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