CENTRAL VALLEY, NY – AUGUST 26: A crocs sign hangs in front of their store at the Woodbury Common … [+]
Crocs stock (NASDAQ: CROX), a company designing, manufacturing, and marketing footwear for men, women, and children under the Crocs
But will the company’s stock see higher levels over the coming weeks, or is a decline in the stock imminent? According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in a company’s stock price, returns for CROX stock average around 20% in the next one month (twenty-one trading days) period after experiencing a 30.7% rise in a week.
But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding Crocs for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test Crocs stock chances of a rise after a fall. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just one day!
MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:
IF CROX stock moved by -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next twenty-one trading days, CROX stock moves an average of 3.7%, which implies an excess return of 2.6% compared to the S&P500.
Average Return CROX Stock
More importantly, there is a 59% probability of a positive return over the next twenty-one trading days and a 55% probability of a positive excess return after a -5% change over five trading days.
Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of Crocs Stock Movements:
Question 1: Is the average return for Crocs stock higher after a drop?
Answer: Consider two situations,
Case 1: Crocs stock drops by -5% or more in a week
Case 2: Crocs stock rises by 5% or more in a week
Is the average return for Crocs stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?
Crocs stock fares better after Case 1, with an average return of 3.8% over the next month (twenty-one trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of 2.8% for Case 2.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next twenty-one trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how Crocs stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.
Question 2: Does patience pay?
Answer: If you buy and hold Crocs stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.
Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!
You can try the engine to see what this table looks like for Crocs after a larger loss over the last week, month, or quarter.
Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?
Answer: The average return after a rise is understandably lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks – although CROX stock appears to be an exception to this general observation.
It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for Crocs by changing the inputs in the charts above.
For further comparison among peer groups, it is helpful to see how they stack up. Check out Crocs Stock Comparison With Peers to see how Crocs compares against peers on metrics that matter.
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