Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg
There are mixed signals for the S&P. The S&P weekly cycle has turned up (100% of all buys have been successful in the last year. The daily cycle bottoms on the 5th, and the buys have a 70% batting average. (Only 50% of the sell signals have been effective.) These cycles are sailing into a headwind of high valuations and excessive bullishness. One of the more important points is that the S&P has hit its objective at 3850. This level had been mentioned as being the expected top from the breakout from an August to November rectangle. A 38% retracement of this move yields 3710 as a low and a worst case scenario puts the index at 3550. I think it will require some consolidation before we see a return to a sustained uptrend. Traders are advised to look at the coming weeks as a trading range.
The Simon Properties Group daily buy signals have been correct in all 10 cases in the last 12 months. The cycle bottoms on Tuesday, the 5th. In addition, the stock has seasonally been strong in the first week of February. The stock may rally closer to $100.
Simon Properties Group Daily Cycle
This accurate cycle hits a low this week.
Simon Properties Group Daily Graph
Relative strength has recently hit a new high.
The daily Pfizer sell signals have been correct in eight of nine cases in the last year. February has been the single weakest month over the last 41 years. The first third of the month has been especially weak. The stock may fall closer to the low 30s.
Pfizer Daily Cycle
This cycle tops early next week.
Pfizer Group Daily Graph
Relative strength is weak and is likely to continue falling.
The daily Marriott sell signals have been correct in nine of ten cases in the last year. The first third of the month has been weak. The stock may fall closer to $116.
Marriott Daily Cycle
This cycle points to a lower share price.
Marriott Daily Graph
Momentum and relative strength are both weak.
